Knowing Your Losses

I’ve already posted this idea. GambleTrack. I didn’t realize it until I finished this post. But no one reads these anyway, so here’s version two for you!

I gamble. Unlike most gamblers, I want to know how much I’m losing.

I love numbers. I can solve numbers. Numbers don’t make you exhausted from pretending to be someone else between hiding in the bathroom and the basement while at a forced gathering.

Part of the fun of gambling is knowing how much money you will likely lose.

Ok, ok. People don’t necessarily want to know how much they are losing. But they want to know how likely it is for them to lose money. Or even better, how likely they are to win money!

Expected Value

Let’s take a simple example. A standard bet is the over/under. A gambler decides if two teams will combine for more or less than a certain number of points in a game. We will say the over/under for a game is 57.5. The game is almost over and the team losing 27 to 28 has a chance at a field goal. The total is currently 55, but the expected value of your bet relates to the likelihood of a successful field goal.

If it is a 20-yard field goal, a $10 bet on the over would have an expected value of ~$9.50. However, if it is a 60-yard field goal, a $10 wager may only have an expected value of $4 or less, depending on the kicker.

But, you don’t want to know your expected value just at the end of the game. You want to know it throughout the entire game.

You can calculate win Probability based on previous games’ results. There’s a free calculator for it on Pro Football Reference.

The Pitch

Create an app that calculates the expected value of all your current bets in real-time.

Making it Happen

Ideally, we would integrate with existing gambling apps like DraftKings, FanDuel, or Caesars Sportsbook. Creating a universal status page that includes all gambling services in one location would be a great feature alone. However, each app offers unique benefits, and it can make sense to place wagers in different apps on their payouts.

People don’t want to re-enter their bets in another app because we’re lazy.

We can provide people with an up-to-date estimate of what they expect their gambling balance to be. Whether the news is good or bad is immaterial. We can even alert them of when a crucial moment in a game is happening that may make or break their wager.

It’s Warning-Track for sports betting.

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