Voting in America is almost as big as March Madness. It is a spectacle, and for someone who loves data as much as I do, it makes for a very exciting night.
In the weeks leading up to the election, things really started moving in the Democrats’ favor. In September, it looked like there was a real chance to split the Senate. By the end of October, there was a 70% chance that Democrats would have at least 52 Senate seats. There was hope of a true blue wave.
Democrats had 47 seats locked in, but which ones could they add? Here are the states they were hoping to flip, from most likely to least likely.
- Ohio (48)
- Michigan (49)
- Texas (50)
- Maine (51)
- Alaska (52)
- Kansas (53)
- Iowa (54)
Democrats were favored in all of these races before the polls closed. I knew they wouldn’t get them all, but 52+ seats seemed possible.
I was prepared to be crushed.
Florida started the night with extremely strong early voting data. Republicans ultimately won the race by 3%, but it was blood in the water.
Ohio and Kansas were the dominoes that made me hopeful that we could get to 53 seats. When the Texas race was called with a margin of more than 10%, I felt confident.
Iowa fell in line, and Michigan and Maine were slow to report. But then came an all-time shocker. South Carolina flipped blue. The previous senator had died, and Trump tried pushing his sister into the position, but South Carolina was over the Grahams. That meant we could actually get to 55 seats.
Nebraska couldn’t push an independent over the finish line, although the race was close for most of the night. Then Susan Collins conceded in Maine. Michigan went blue as well, although the race was closer than it should have been. Democrats now had 54 seats.
While we were waiting for Alaska to report, another landmine went off.
A flood of votes came in from Mississippi, and the odds went from a 90% chance of a Republican win to a 70% chance of a Democratic win. There had been rumors that Mississippi was in play, but it felt more like a Florida situation. Now it was a true toss-up.
As of Wednesday morning, Democrats had secured 54 Senate seats. The races in the two remaining states are incredibly close.
- Alaska (74% reporting):
- 102,962 D
- 102,325 R
- Mississippi (97% reporting):
- 467,930 D
- 465,356 R
I’ve focused heavily on the Senate because that’s where things were most interesting. The House was expected to flip Democratic. The surprise was that by Wednesday morning, Democrats had already claimed 228 seats, with a real possibility of a 60% majority and 261 blue seats.
The blue tsunami actually occurred. Then came the waiting game for the final numbers.
Votes continued to trickle in from Alaska and Mississippi. A week later, there are still two undecided Senate seats. Twenty-one House races remain undecided.
Senate: 54 D, 44 R, 2 TBD (2 lean D)
House: 252 D, 162 R, 21 TBD (8 lean D, 13 lean R)
It is clear that America is finally willing to move on from Donald Trump. How strong Democrats can be over the next two years remains to be seen. But there is hope again.
